By on 2.22.22 in Carolina Demographics

Dr. Michael Cline is the state demographer for North Carolina at the Office of State Budget and Management and has given us permission to re-post his content here. Each year, he publishes population estimates and projections for North Carolina and its counties.

I have published the latest population projections for the state and counties. You can find a summary of the projections here: Population Projections Provide Glimpse into Our Future | NC OSBM

These are the first population projections to incorporate some information from the 2020 Census. The US Census Bureau has not yet released more detailed demographic characteristics data for the 2020 Census.  Because of this, these estimates and projections utilize a blended base of information that relies on much of the detailed characteristics data from the 2010 census – while maintaining the population totals reported from the 2020 Census. 

You may see considerable differences between these population projections and those produced previously.  This is due to the 2020 Census results and  the impact of COVID.  The population counts for several counties came in well below our previous estimates and 51 counties lost population between 2010 – 2020.  NC experienced more deaths and fewer births than we would have expected without the pandemic.  We assume a return to the previous trends some time in 2022 (let’s hope).

You can access summary tables of the population projections and csv files here: County/State Population Projections | NC OSBM or use our subdomain of our LINC system: https://demography.osbm.nc.gov/.  If you register on the open data platform, you can save visualizations you create.

Data are provided for the state and counties in three major formats: (1) Population by Sex and Age; (2) Population by Race, Sex, and Age Groups; (3) Total Population by Hispanic Origin, Sex, and White & Non-White Race categories.  The data also include indicators for selected county aggregations (such as Council of Governments) in order to extract data easily.


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