Who are NC’s new voters? A 2020 update

It’s been almost four years since the 2016 general election and in that time, there have been demographic shifts in North Carolina. With just two months before the 2020 election cycle, we’ve broken down the changes by partisan composition and who makes up our newly registered voting population. First, we should note: our state’s population continues to grow North Carolina has experienced steady population gains since 2016, with net gains masking a larger turnover in…

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Who are North Carolina’s Unaffiliated Voters: 2020 Update

As of July 25th, 2020, North Carolina had 7 million registered voters. Of these, 2.3 million or 33% were registered unaffiliated. This post examines the characteristics of NC’s unaffiliated voters. Age Younger voters are the most likely to register as unaffiliated. Forty-three percent of voters ages 18-34 are registered unaffiliated compared to 35% of voters ages 35-54, 26% of voters ages 55-74, and 21% of voters 75 and older. As a result, younger adults, especially…

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Not good: NC, Southeast lag in Census 2020 self-response and non-response follow-up

Non-Response Follow-Up (NRFU) for the 2020 Census began nationwide on Tuesday, August 11th. Last week, the Census Bureau began releasing daily reports on total enumeration—the percent of housing units that have self-responded plus the percent that have been captured in NRFU —for the nation and all 50 states, DC., and Puerto Rico. This proportion ranges from 1.7% in Idaho to 29.1% in West Virginia. Based on these reports, North Carolina, and the southeast more broadly,…

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North Carolina’s current Census 2020 response lags 2010. This is a problem.

As of August 18, 2020, nearly three in five North Carolina households had responded to the census online, by mail, or by phone (59.8%). This is below the national average of 63.9%. It is also below North Carolina’s self-response rate in 2010 (64.8%) by five percentage points, despite the two-and-a-half additional months of self-response compared to the last census due to coronavirus-related extensions. Every household that does not self-respond to the Census must be counted…

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Who are North Carolina’s Republican Voters: 2020 Update

This is part of our series looking at NC's registered voters. Other stories include an overview of NC's voters and an in-depth look at NC's Democratic voters. As of July 25th, 2020, North Carolina had 7 million registered voters. Of these, 2.1 million or 30% were registered as a Republican. Age Younger voters are the least likely to register as Republican, reflecting their higher affinity for registering unaffiliated. Just 23% of voters ages 18-34 are…

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Who are North Carolina’s Registered Democrats? A 2020 Update

This is part of our series looking at NC's registered voters. Other stories include an overview of NC's voters and an in-depth look at NC's Republican voters. As of July 25th, 2020, North Carolina had 7 million registered voters. Of these, 2.5 million or 36% were registered as a Democrat. Age Older voters are the most likely to register as a Democrat, partly reflecting the legacy of the “Solid South.” Just over 43% of voters…

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Who are North Carolina’s 7 million registered voters?

This is the first in a three-part series on North Carolina's voters. Today, we take a look at North Carolina's 7 million registered voters. In the coming days, we will take a look at North Carolina's registered Republicans and Democrats, respectively. As of July 25th, 2020, North Carolina had about 7.8 million voting-eligible adults and 7 million registered voters. Their partisan affiliation was roughly split between three groups: Democrat, unaffiliated, and Republican, with a slight…

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NC’s current 2020 Census response is concerning

More than four in every ten North Carolina households have not yet filled out the 2020 Census, representing more than 4 million North Carolinians not currently captured in the Census. Our current response rate is below the national rate and below where our state was in 2010. North Carolina communities that have not responded at high rates are predominantly rural, Black, and Brown, with low internet access. It is vital to our state that all…

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Who isn’t responding to the Census in North Carolina?

Every household that doesn’t fill out the census form online, by mail, or by phone—known as “self-response”—enters the Census Bureau’s non-response follow-up (NRFU) universe. During NRFU, the Census Bureau sends trained enumerators door-to-door to collect census responses directly. This is an expensive and time-consuming process. NRFU was supposed to start in May 2020 but has been delayed due to COVID-19. The Census Bureau currently plans to begin NRFU operations in mid-August. To understand which communities this might impact, we examined shifts in the tracts with the lowest self-response (bottom 20%) and compared low response rates on March 20th with the lowest responding tracts as of May 17th. (The bottom 20% is a fluid group. The tracts in the bottom can change week to week as certain communities increase their response rates.)

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2020 Census: How is North Carolina doing?

NC Census Tracker Updates Visit the NC Census Tracker Sign up for email updates about the map and our weekly response rate analyses Presentations and Downloads 2020 Census: How is North Carolina Doing (April 22, 2020) North Carolina: Census 2020 Real-Time Response Rates – Week ending April 26 (PDF) County-Level Response Rates – Week ending April 26 New: NC college maps and tract data Note: The below analysis was done on 4/22/2020 with the self-response…

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