Calculating Wake County’s one millionth resident
Contextualizing Wake County's millionth resident in a report about rapid growth
In 2014, the Wake County Board of Commissioners asked Carolina Demography to estimate when their population would surpass one million residents. In addition, they asked us to contextualize the estimated characteristics of their millionth resident in a broader discussion of past trends, current demographic characteristics, and a look to the future of Wake County.
In 1910, Wake County’s population was 63,229. Although Wake County has grown steadily since then, it did not reach 100,000 residents until 1940. Over half a century later, in 1994, Wake’s population surpassed half a million.
The establishment of Research Triangle Park in Wake County and neighboring Durham County in 1959 catalyzed new growth in Wake County. Wake grew from the fourth most populous county in the state in 1960 to the second most populous in 1990.
As of July 1, 2013, Wake County had a population of 974,289, the 46th largest county population in the country. Wake County’s population grew by an estimated 73,271 persons since 2010, a growth rate of 2.6% annually.
At some point in 2014, the one millionth resident would officially arrive in Wake County.
We were asked to figure out what day this person would arrive — and provide additional information about new people moving into Wake County.
We started off with some questions:
To estimate the date, we compared the 2010 Census population figure for Wake with the 2013 population estimate for the county, which the federal
government calculates using various data about migration patterns and births and deaths.
We then calculated the average growth per day for Wake County and determined the exact date of arrival of the millionth resident: April 22, 2014.
Other data sources informed our written report summarizing overall trends, and a longer, in-depth white paper that contextualized the millionth resident in a broader discussion of past trends.
The resulting report received wide media coverage, with pieces in the Associated Press and the News and Observer (Raleigh), and coverage on WNCN-TV, WRAL-TV, WTVG-TV, and Warner Cable News Online. Wake County also received several awards, including a NACIO award from the National Association for County Information Officers, for its communication around this data.
To estimate the arrival of the millionth resident
What’s behind the dramatic rise in the Southeast’s Asian Indian population? How can data points such as the median age of Asian American groups predict North Carolina’s future? How do the numbers match with growth trends of other populations like…
Nathan Dollar, PhD, has been named the new director of Carolina Demography, an applied demography center located within the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Most recently Dollar served as a research scientist and…
Dr. Michael Cline is the state demographer for North Carolina at the Office of State Budget and Management and has given us permission to re-post his content here. Each year, he publishes population estimates and projections for North Carolina and…
Your support is critical to our mission of measuring, understanding, and predicting population change and its impact. Donate to Carolina Demography today.