Keep up with our latest demographic insights

2020 Congressional Reapportionment: An Update

Every decade, following the decennial Census, the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are allocated to the 50 states based on their population. After the 2000 Census, 12 House seats shifted between the states; another 12 seats shifted after the 2010 Census. Two years ago, we explored how ongoing population shifts might impact the reapportionment process following the 2020 Census. At that time, the most recent population estimates were for 2014. Today we…

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All congressional district boundaries will require adjustment in 2021 redistricting [UPDATED]

We originally discussed reapportionment and redistricting in North Carolina in a series of posts in November 2015. To reflect the newly redrawn congressional maps, we updated our 2014 population estimates for congressional districts. This post updates the 2020 population projections for North Carolina’s congressional districts. North Carolina will likely have 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives following the post-2020 Census reapportionment process. While we cannot guarantee a 14th seat (no matter how likely),…

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U.S. Congressional District Population Estimates and Deviation from Ideal Population Size, 2014

Following the decennial Census, political districts, such as U.S. Congressional Districts and state legislative districts, are reapportioned to states and counties on the basis of population and their boundaries are redrawn in a process called redistricting. Broadly speaking, the goal of redistricting is to make each district as close in population size in possible. North Carolina is not the only state with uneven patterns of population growth. Across the United States, population is increasingly concentrated in urban and…

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UPDATED: NC House District Population Estimates and Deviation from Ideal Population Size, 2014

North Carolina’s redrawn congressional districts had equal population in 2010, but North Carolina’s population growth since then has been highly uneven. Two counties, Wake and Mecklenburg, have accounted for nearly half of the state’s growth between 2010 and 2014, while 49 of 100 counties lost population over this time period. How many people are currently living in the newly defined congressional districts? And how much do their current populations deviate from the equal population size that is the goal of every decennial redistricting? The U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey provides annually updated demographic information for congressional districts, but it will take some time for the newly defined boundaries to appear in the ACS data. Using our neighborhood change dataset and the July 1, 2014 county estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, we estimated the number of people living in each of North Carolina’s congressional districts on July 1, 2014. Detailed information on the data and methodology used to produce these estimates is available here.

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NC Legislative District Population Estimates and Deviation from Ideal Population Size, 2014

Following the decennial Census, political districts, such as U.S. Congressional Districts and state legislative districts, are reapportioned to states and counties on the basis of population and their boundaries are redrawn in a process called redistricting. Broadly speaking, the goal of redistricting is to make each district as close in population size in possible. While North Carolina’s population growth continues to outpace the nation, this growth is concentrated in the state’s urban areas. Nearly half of the state’s population growth since 2010 has occurred in two counties—Wake and Mecklenburg. Over this same time period, 49 of the state’s 100 counties have lost population. Today’s post explores the implications of these population shifts on the state’s legislative districts.

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Who Counts Overseas? Reapportionment & Interstate Conflict

States typically benefit from having as much representation in Congress as possible. Each state is guaranteed two Senators, but the number of representatives each state has in the U.S. House of Representatives is based on population size. Representatives are reapportioned to the states every ten years, following the release of population counts from the decennial census. As the number of seats in the House of Representatives is fixed at 435, any change in the number…

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2020 Reapportionment Will Shift Political Power South and West

December 21, 2017: This post provides an updated look at potential 2020 reapportionment shifts based on the July 1, 2017 population estimates. Every decade, following the decennial Census, the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are allocated to the 50 states on the basis of their population. After the 2000 Census, 12 House seats shifted between 18 states. Ten states lost at least one representative while eight states gained at least one representative.…

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