Keep up with our latest demographic insights

Declining Growth from Natural Increase: The Impact of Population Aging

Net migration has been a major driver of North Carolina’s growth since 1990 and its importance will only increase in coming years. The only other potential source of growth is natural increase—births minus deaths—and this has been declining since the recession. In my recent post, I noted that even if fertility rates increase significantly, we should not expect natural increase to rebound to prior levels, largely due to the growing impacts of population aging. Although…

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NC Birth Trends in 5 Graphs

1) Total births are not rebounding to 2007 levels. North Carolina births peaked in 2007, with nearly 131,000 babies born to North Carolina residents. Since then, total births have steadily declined. In 2013, 119,000 babies were born, a decline of 9% from the 2007 peak. 2) NC fertility rates are at their lowest level since 1996. The general fertility rate, measured as the number of live births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (women age…

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